Time To Check The Crystal Ball (Apple Edition)

Often times people will ask me various questions about upcoming stuff in the consumer technology sphere and I'll go over what I've read about and my own guesses as to what may be coming along down the pipeline.  Afterall I am a reader of several computer/tech blogs and news sites as well as participate in several online forums about this topic so I like to think I have a "feel" for the pulse beat of the tech world.  Sometimes I'm close in my guesses, other times I miss the mark completely, and at times I'm dead on with my predictions.

With that in mind it dawned on me that I never really put up a post here with some serious thought about not one particular thing but rather a broader look at the next 12-18 months.

I'm going to cover Apple in this post and look at others in follow up posts later this week.

So here it is, my predictions for the next 12-18 months.

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One Week With The New iPad

It's been one week since I got the new iPad (3rd gen) and I've been using it every day since and I thought I would share my impressions so far of the device.  It's a given that being a new toy I have been using it more than I normally do but I am also finding it hard to put down, much more than the previous two generations of iPad that I have owned.  So, do I have any regrets in upgrading to yet another iPad?

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iPad Data Consumption And You

A few news outlets (ABC and Fox News that I saw), the Wall Street Journal, and various tech blogs all had various stories about how the new iPad with LTE from Verizon and AT&T were eating up the pre-paid data buckets that people were purchasing at "alarming" rates.  There were accounts of people who burned through their 2 or 3GB of data in just a few hours by watching streaming videos in high definition.

Imagine that, streaming HD video content to your iPad could go through a couple of GB's of data in just a matter of a few hours?  Who would have EVER thought that the case?

Okay, I'll turn off my scarcasm for a few minutes here and explain just what I think of this.

First off, the new iPad has a higher resolution display which means that apps are going to larger.  This is a result of the more detailed graphics and other content.  Any app that requires such high resolution data to be downloaded (i.e. graphics heavy) is going to eat a bit more into your data plan.  It's just a fact of life for a device with a display this good.

Second, streaming any kind of video content is going to burn through your data fast.  A typical 1 hour TV show in HD is going to consume about 1.5GB of bandwidth right there.  If you're streaming a movie in HD then count on around 3-4GB.

This is why I got a 64GB model iPad with LTE!

I wanted the LTE for fast access for web browsing and app access.  I have several different weather apps on both my iPad and iPhone but I'm a bit of a closet weather geek.  I also like having the LTE for when I'm cruising the social networking apps like Tweetbot, Facebook, Instagram, etc.  For the most part it's text heavy stuff which means it doesn't consume too much data.  For how often I'll fire up the LTE radio and how I'll use it then 2GB should just about do me right per month.

If I think I might want to watch some videos in HD then I have quite the collection of material purchased over the years from iTunes.  I can just load that material up before leaving the house and with proper planning I shouldn't find myself wanting for something "at home".

In other words, I planned a head for this.  I knew that the new iPad would probably be 4G enabled and probably have a higher resolution display and I saved my money accordingly over the past twelve months.  

On the other hand I can certainly understand a lot of people won't be able to afford a 64GB LTE iPad, they'll be lucky to afford a 16GB model.  Hell, I've been there, done that, and lost the t-shirt.  However, with proper storage managment they should be able to enjoy their HD content AND not rack up a huge data bill per month.  Heck, when you consider how much the data plans cost and that both AT&T and Verizon both charge $10 per GB over their plan people will end up spending more over a month or two than they would have up front by buying a model with more storage.

And one thing that really burns me up is how the media is playing this off as some sort of "flaw" with the new iPad.  Plan a head and this is not a problem at all.

iPad Conspiracy Theory

I have to admit that I had really hoped that the new iPad when released would include a 128GB storage option.  Seriously, I have a lot of crap on my current 32GB iPad 2 and I can only imagine that with the higher resolution retina display that will be on the new model that application sizes are going to start going through the roof.  And that's not including the loading of 1080p iTunes video content or larger sized pictures.  I ordered the 64GB model because I know I'll end up needing that extra bit of space.

So, why didn't Apple opt to include a 128GB option?  Prices for flash memory?  No room with the larger battery to support the new display and LTE radio?  i don't think so.

My personal opinion, and it's based on having watched Apple release new models on an annual basis, is that it has to do with the NEXT version of the iPad coming in 2013!

If you look back at how each model of the iPhone has been updated you can get a clue.  You can also see a new trend in the tablet space.

Let's take a look at the evolution of the iPhone.  First there was simply the iPhone.  At the time it was an industry defining device that evoked many forms of emulation as it became the Must Have Phone.  But look at what it lacked at the time.  It did not have 3G service and could not load apps of any kind.  One year later Apple debuts the iPhone 3G which had a slightly better camera, an app store, and the self-titled 3G service.  One year after that a minor spec bump to the 3Gs with an even better camera and slightly faster internals provided a no-brainer upgrade for those who had gotten the first model two years earlier.  One year after that saw a major product revision that included an all new style, a super high resolution display for a phone, faster CPU that was an Apple custom model, and the best camera on a phone at that time.  The iPhone 4S came out sixteen months later with an even better camera, faster dual-core processor, a larger storage model, and a Must Have virtual assistant.  The pattern is that for most years there are incremental updates with the HUGE update thrown in every couple of years to entice people to want that newer device sooner rather than later.

I think this is the pattern that Apple is following now.

Other than a new form factor and CPU it could be argued that the iPad 2 was more of a refinement over the first iPad.  I've owned both models and personally speaking, it feels like the iPad 2 was what Apple really wanted to release in the first place while the original iPad was to see if the market could be developed.  The upcoming iPad may share a similar look to the iPad 2 but make no mistake, it's a much bigger improvement generational wise in the product line.  The new screen and integrated LTE makes sure of that if nothing else does.

Looking through the crystal ball of hardware development and what is expected to be in the pipeline over the next 12 to 18 months I can't see what else Apple could add to the next generation of iPads other than increasing the storage capcity.  There may be a new custome Apple CPU to drive it but we already know that's coming either in the next iPhone or the next iPad (my money is on the next iPad).  What the Powers That Be at Apple may be counting on next year is that new high resolution screen creating a demand for more storage capacity to drive new model sales.  Think about it.  Most folks tend to flock to the 16 and 32GB model of iPads while the power users go big at 64GB and all users of the new model will have to contend with larger apps to account for the increases resolution or deal with crappy looking screens, which defeats the purpose of such a large display.  Casual users who have an older model may think that they are fine at the storage point they are at now only to be rudely surprised to find they are out of space after only a "few" apps.  The power users will bide their time until next year and snap up the 128GB models and probably bitch that Apple should have released a 256GB model (me).  I would discount a external hardware revision to make it look "newer" either.

The bottom line is that Apple has figured out how to drive sales of their iOS devices and how to get a lot of folks to pony up money on an annual basis.  Offer a little bit more each time with maybe one new Must Have feature and rely on the casual users to upgrade every two years.  It may sound evil but remember, it's a business out to make a profit.

New iPad Setup Plans

I think I have settled on a setup plan for the new iPad when it arrives next week.  Instead of doing a straight up restore from a previously saved backup like I have done in the past I think I will try doing things a bit differently.

I have to admit that over the past five or six months I have gotten very lazy with app upkeep on my iPad.  At one time I took care to ensure that each app was in a specific folder of similar apps.  This helps to keep track of apps and make it much easier to find a specific one when needed.  After my last restore, with the release version of iOS 5 this past fall, a lot of apps "fell" out of their folders and I never bothered getting around to fixing this.  I've also managed to accumulate quite a few apps I hardly, if ever, use.  There are a few I had forgotten I had downloaded in the first place back with the original first generation iPad that made it over through restores from backups!

Rather than trying to fix this SNAFU I think I'll start out with the new iPad as a brand new unit and add only the things I REALLY use.  I'll take a page from how I have my iPhone set up and keep the most used apps individually on the main screen and use the other screen/screens for app storage in various type folders.  This set up has worked really well for fast access to those most used apps while on the odd occasions I find myself needing an app not used every day it's easy to select the category folder it is in.

I am also going to start using the new iPad to show off my photography more.  With the added storage size I'm getting (64GB) along with the incredibly high resolution display I can afford to load up full sized copies of my pictures and have them handy.  I have to admit I'm really looking forward to this as everything I've read from the hands on time the media got at the product announcement says that this display is the BEST out in the market today.  Now that Apple has released an iOS version of iPhoto and Adobe has launched it's Photoshop Touch app I have downloaded both and am going to try those out as well.  My only hang up is that the iOS version of iPhoto does not support the RAW image format, only JPEG.  I shoot everything with my DSLR in RAW as it provides the least compression and preserves the most information.  It's what I edit photos from and I always create backups of the RAW photos seperate from what I import into Aperture 3 on my Macs.  With the iPad Camera Connection Kit I can import RAW photos to view via the included Photo app so I'll have to see if it will support that and then allow me to import them into iPhoto to edit as JPEGs.

I'll also be trying something else out, at least initially.  Instead of doing the first sync via my iMac I'm going to try going iCloud only for everything, just to see how that works out.  Thanks to iCloud all my contact information, bookmarks, appointments, and other such things will already be there waiting.  With iTunes Match all my music will be there if I need it, although I do tend to use my iPhone more for music listening than the iPad.  With previously purchased TV shows and now movies available for redownload at any time on any of my devices I'll just load them up when needed via my home Wi-Fi network.  It will be an interesting experiment for me and it probably shows that I really need to get out more instead of pondering this sort of crap.

After almost two years of using the first two generations of iPads a certain way I'm going to try mixing things up a bit and see what I can accomplish.  Stay tuned for more as it unfolds!